Commentary on recent market volatility

Richard Irwin |
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On April 2nd, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on virtually the whole world, which rattled global financial markets. In the 2 days after the announcement, the US stock market, as broadly measured by the S&P 500, fell by over 10%. The market reaction to the tariff announcement resulted in the worst sell-off since the COVID-19 pandemic 5 years ago, temporarily erasing over $5 trillion dollars in stock market wealth.  

I know market ups and downs can feel unsettling, but history has shown time and again that markets recover and go on to reach new highs, often quicky—even after major downturns. The table below shows the 10 worst one-day drops in the US stock market from 1981 to 2025, and the subsequent recoveries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

 

 

Cause

 

 

One-Day Decline %

 

 

# of days to reach previous high

 

 

Return after 1 year

 

 

Annual returns: 3 years

 

 

Annual returns: 5 years

 

 

 

1

 

 

October19,1987

 

 

BlackMonday

 

 

-20.47%

 

 

264

 

 

23.19%

 

 

11.59%

 

 

13.03%

 

 

 

2

 

 

March 16,2020

 

 

COVID-19Pandemic

 

 

-11.98%

 

 

19

 

 

66.07%

 

 

18.41%

 

 

18.77%

 

 

 

3

 

 

March 12,2020

 

 

COVID-19Pandemic

 

 

-9.51%

 

 

20

 

 

58.96%

 

 

15.91%

 

 

17.69%

 

 

 

4

 

 

October15, 2008

 

 

GlobalFinancial Crisis

 

 

-9.03%

 

 

15

 

 

20.79%

 

 

10.50%

 

 

13.34%

 

 

 

5

 

 

December1st, 2008

 

 

GlobalFinancial Crisis

 

 

-8.93%

 

 

6

 

 

35.85%

 

 

15.11%

 

 

17.22%

 

 

 

6

 

 

September29, 2008

 

 

GlobalFinancial Crisis

 

 

-8.79%

 

 

410

 

 

-4.14%

 

 

1.60%

 

 

8.87%

 

 

 

7

 

 

October26, 1987

 

 

BlackMonday 2.0

 

 

-8.28%

 

 

5

 

 

23.59%

 

 

10.20%

 

 

12.92%

 

 

 

8

 

 

October9, 2008

 

 

GlobalFinancial Crisis

 

 

-7.62%

 

 

3

 

 

17.76%

 

 

8.30%

 

 

12.73%

 

 

 

9

 

 

March 9,2020

 

 

COVID-19Pandemic

 

 

-7.60%

 

 

57

 

 

41.10%

 

 

12.58%

 

 

16.01%

 

 

 

10

 

 

October27, 1997

 

 

AsianFinancial Crisis

 

 

-6.87%

 

 

8

 

 

21.48%

 

 

16.30%

 

 

0.47%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source:Ned Davis Research, Morningstar

 

 

 

 

 

80.7

 

 

30.47%

 

 

12.05%

 

 

13.11%

 

 

On average, it took 81 days for the US market to reach its previous high. 8 out of 10 times this happened in less than 60 days and 70% of the time it took place in 20 days or less. The average return 12 months after these market declines was over 30% and the 3- & 5- year subsequent annual rates of return were 12-13%.

The key takeaway? Volatility is temporary, and staying the course pays off. Emotional decisions often lead to missed opportunities, but market dips can also create opportunities to adjust and strengthen your strategy.

In periods of market volatility, it is important to maintain a long-term perspective. Our client's investment portfolios are built with resilience in mind, with proper diversification by geography and asset class. History has shown us that, as uncomfortable as it may feel during the midst of a market sell-off, staying the course is usually the best approach. Keep calm and carry on and know that I am here anytime to help if you have any questions or concerns.